Citrus is one of South Africa’s biggest agricultural exports, and the 2026 season is heading for a below-last-year finish. The Citrus Growers’ Association of Southern Africa (CGA) has cut its 2026 export estimate from 209.4 million 15kg cartons in April to 197.9 million cartons, according to FreshPlaza. That is below the final 2025 export volume of 204 million cartons.
Two forecast cuts in one season
The CGA opened the season in early April pointing at 210 to 215 million cartons, an estimate that implied growth on the previous season. That came down to 209.4 million, then to 205.3 million in an update reported by FreshPlaza in August, and then to 197.9 million cartons. Measured from the 209.4 million April figure, the latest estimate is about 11.5 million cartons lower, and it sits below the 204 million cartons shipped in 2025 rather than above it.
Several things drove the trimming. The Middle East, which normally absorbs about 20% of the crop, has been disrupted by war, hitting trade routes. Early-season rainfall affected Limpopo and Mpumalanga, and flooding in the Western and Eastern Cape destroyed some orchards. Port bottlenecks added pressure, as did higher shipping and input costs and weaker buying power in export markets, along with limited use of the country’s rail network.
Why the Middle East problem is largely about getting fruit there
Part of the problem is logistics. According to the CGA’s reporting, the war has affected shipping rates, diesel costs and transit times, and the association has also flagged concern about possible disruption in the Red Sea and at the Port of Jeddah. Citrus is a perishable, seasonal export: South Africa sells into the northern hemisphere when northern growers are out of season, which is a structural advantage but also a hard deadline. A shipment that arrives late can miss its market window, and there is no option to hold inventory until conditions improve.
The CGA has also urged “quality discipline across the value chain” so that fruit reaches the right market in the required condition.
What it means further down the chain
Citrus at this scale is not just a farming story. A season of roughly 200 million cartons pulls in packhouses, cold storage, carton and packaging manufacturers, inspection services, container logistics, port capacity and a large seasonal labour force.
That makes the forecast revisions worth watching for reasons beyond grower income. Packhouse and cold-store capacity, transport contracts and seasonal hiring are committed in advance against an estimate. When the estimate moves by more than 11 million cartons between April and now, businesses that geared up for the higher figure carry the cost of the gap, and they are typically smaller and less able to absorb it than the exporters at the top of the chain.
For now, the headline is a season that is heading below last year’s volume, not above it. The more informative number is the distance between what growers expected in April and what they expect now, because that gap is where the weather, the freight costs, the port delays and the war actually show up.
This sits alongside earlier coverage of the same crop’s supply picture: see this site’s report on South Africa’s citrus surplus, and a related look at a new export market opening for a different fruit: this site’s report on cherry exports to China.
