For a small retailer that relies on a Shopify store, the headline from World Wide Worx is both a relief and a warning. The research released on Wednesday says online sales in South Africa will reach R159 billion in 2026, up from R130 billion last year. That sounds like a big jump, but the annual growth rate is expected to fall to 22.5%, down from more than 35% in the two previous years.
The slowdown matters because it signals a shift from rapid expansion to a more mature market. A larger base means that even a slower percentage increase adds more rand than a faster rate did five years ago. The report notes that the market will add about R29 billion in turnover this year, roughly the same size as the whole online retail sector in 2020, when it was worth R30.2 billion.
World Wide Worx’s managing director, Arthur Goldstuck, says the change is not a crisis but a sign that growth has settled into the 20-35% band that has been typical since 2006, ignoring the pandemic spike of 2020. What has changed is where the growth is coming from. The share of shoppers who spend more than R2 000 in a six-month period rose from 23.4% to 29%, according to Ask Africa’s Target Group Index, which surveyed 23 910 adults in 2025.
Payment friction at the checkout
One of the more actionable findings is the high rate of failed payments. When respondents were asked what caused an unsuccessful checkout, 60.7% blamed website or checkout errors, 50.7% said they ran out of funds, and the same share abandoned the process during authentication. Suspected fraud accounted for 30.8% and issuer-side declines for 25.9%. Goldstuck called the fraud figure a surprise because payment fraud is the single biggest concern retailers report.
On the supply side, debit and credit cards are still the dominant methods, accepted by 99% and 98.5% of online merchants respectively. Bank transfers (EFT) are offered by 89.1% of retailers. Buy-now-pay-later schemes have crossed the halfway mark, with 54.7% of merchants offering them. Digital wallets sit at 36.8% and QR-code payments at 27.9%. PayShap, a newer local option, is only available through 6.5% of sites.
Logistics and cross-border trade
The logistics landscape is also consolidating. The Courier Guy is the preferred delivery partner for 64.7% of online retailers, followed by RAM (13.9%) and Fastway (13.4%). Smaller players such as Aramex, DPD Laser, Pargo and DSV each serve less than 8% of merchants.
Cross-border e-commerce, which once grew at 30-50% annually, is now slowing. The South African Revenue Service removed the de minimis duty concession in November 2024, a move that the report links to a drop in growth for international platforms. Shein, the China-founded fast-fashion retailer, saw its annual growth fall to 11%, and overall cross-border sales fell to 7%. Still, 18.6% of all e-commerce transactions in 2025 were cross-border, about 19 million orders, even as consumer trust in foreign sites slipped from 10% to 4%.
Among local players, Takealot Group posted its first full-year trading profit in 15 years, reporting adjusted earnings before interest and tax (EBIT, profit before interest and tax, after one-off items) of R171 million. Checkers Sixty60 recorded R25.5 billion in sales for the year to June. Takealot remains the most-used platform, capturing 35.3% of shoppers, followed by Shein at 21.5% and Sixty60 at 15%. Amazon held 12.7% before its Prime service launched locally in June. Goldstuck predicts that Sixty60 will overtake Takealot among households earning more than R100 000 per month within a year.
For small and medium-sized enterprises, the data points to three practical takeaways. First, the market is big enough to justify investment in a robust checkout experience, fixing website errors could recover a sizable share of the 60% of failures attributed to technical glitches. Second, offering a mix of payment options, especially buy-now-pay-later, can capture higher-spending shoppers who are already moving into the R2 000-plus bracket. Third, partnering with a dominant logistics provider such as The Courier Guy can improve delivery reliability, a factor that increasingly influences repeat purchases.
Overall, the picture is one of a market that has moved from a growth sprint to a steady jog. The headline number of R159 billion is impressive, but the real story lies in the shifting composition of shoppers, the friction points at checkout, and the evolving role of cross-border platforms.
