South Africa’s consumer confidence index improved to -13 in the third quarter of 2026 from -19 in the second quarter, according to the FNB/Bureau for Economic Research survey released on 17 September. The reading is still well below the long-term average, which the Bureau for Economic Research puts at zero since 1994, so households remain more pessimistic than optimistic.
The index is built from three survey questions put to adults in mostly urban areas: how they expect the economy to perform, how they expect their own household finances to fare, and whether it is a good time to buy durable goods such as furniture, appliances and electronics. Each result is a net balance, the share of respondents expecting improvement less the share expecting a deterioration. The scale runs from -100 to +100.
Low-income households recover most
The improvement was uneven. According to Business Day’s report on the survey, high- and middle-income households regained about half of the ground they lost in the second quarter, while confidence among low-income households rose to its highest level since the third quarter of 2024.
FNB chief economist Mamello Matikinca-Ngwenya said that “low food inflation has shielded the budgets of low-income households”, even though higher bus and taxi fares have pushed up their transport costs. The Reserve Bank’s 23 September statement backs up the food point: it described food inflation as the lowest since 2010.
Middle- and high-income earners have had a harder time. The South African Reserve Bank raised the repo rate by 25 basis points to 7% in May, effective 29 May, after four of the six Monetary Policy Committee members voted for the increase. Households in these income groups carry more formal credit, such as home loans and vehicle finance, and spend more on big-ticket items, so a higher rate reaches their budgets sooner. FNB noted that high-income consumers, who account for much of the country’s spending, still show very low confidence.
Big purchases are being put off
Households are more hopeful about the economy and their own finances, but less willing to spend on large items. The durable goods sub-index fell to an 18-month low of -25, Business Day reported. The report said consumers are likely to stay cautious about increasing discretionary spending in the near term.
Matikinca-Ngwenya said shoppers “will likely remain cost-conscious and prioritise necessities over discretionary spending in the run-up to the festive season.” For retailers that matters more than the headline number.
Fuel and interest rates came after the survey
The survey was taken before two developments that weigh on household budgets. Brent crude jumped from about $90 a barrel to more than $100 as the conflict involving Iran escalated, according to the BusinessTech report of the survey, which was first published by Bloomberg. Business Day cited October fuel price projections of R2.62 a litre for petrol and R2.81 a litre for diesel in Gauteng, while BusinessTech carried a figure of about R2 a litre.
Then, on 23 September, the Monetary Policy Committee raised the repo rate by another 25 basis points to 7.25%, effective 25 September, according to SAnews. The decision was unanimous. Governor Lesetja Kganyago said fuel prices had started rising again, and the committee cited inflation of 4.4% and a global supply shock from Middle East conflict. The Bank also cut its 2026 growth forecast to 1.2% from 1.4%.
The improvement was therefore recorded before the second rate increase in four months and before the October pump price change.
What it means for retailers and borrowers
For small retailers, the survey gives a specific signal. Low-income shoppers, who are spending on food and transport, are in better shape than they were a quarter ago. Shoppers who buy appliances and cars on credit are not, and the durable goods reading points to them holding back. Retailers who sell mainly staples may see steadier demand than those relying on big-ticket sales in the festive season.
Borrowers with variable-rate debt can test what the extra 25 basis points costs them with the loan cost comparison tool, and the credit score guide sets out how to strengthen an application before borrowing. More coverage of household spending is in retail and consumer, and rate and inflation news is in markets and finance.
