The United States is expected to announce within weeks which African countries stay eligible for the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), the programme that gives qualifying countries duty-free access to the US market, and South Africa could be left off the list. Jaco Kleynhans, head of public liaison at the trade union Solidarity, told BusinessTech that the announcement is likely at the start of November 2026.
An extension that does not settle eligibility
AGOA was extended to the end of 2028 in early September, after lapsing in September 2025 and receiving a temporary extension to the end of 2026. According to IOL, the US House of Representatives approved the extension 370 votes to 48, the Senate had backed it in August, and President Donald Trump signed the law on Wednesday 2 September. The Sunday Times reported that President Donald Trump signed the two-year extension in the Continuing Appropriations and Extensions Act, 2027. South Africa had asked for 15 years.
The extension changes the end date only. The White House still decides each country’s eligibility every year, and the US Trade Representative formally launched the 2027 eligibility review in June. The Sunday Times reported that the current list could still be revised before the next determination takes effect on 1 January 2027.
“Although AGOA has been extended until the end of 2028, the White House determines eligibility on an annual basis,” Kleynhans said. “There is a good reason to fear that South Africa will be excluded next year.” He said exclusion would cause “immense damage”.
How much South Africa has at stake
South Africa has been the largest single beneficiary since AGOA began in 2000, accounting for 54% of all exports under the programme, according to BusinessTech. Between 2019 and 2024 the country exported roughly R300 billion of goods through AGOA, and about 500 000 South African jobs depend on it.
In 2024, South Africa accounted for about half of the $8.23 billion in goods exported under the programme, according to US International Trade Commission data cited in the Sunday Times. BusinessTech adds that approximately 22% of South African exports to the US benefit from AGOA. The motor industry is already under pressure from other US tariffs: vehicle export earnings to the United States fell from R17.7 billion in 2024 to R8 billion in 2025. The United States has imposed additional tariffs on South African vehicles, steel and aluminium, citing policy disagreements and trade grievances over agricultural products and market access.
The diplomatic backdrop
The eligibility decision comes in the middle of a widening dispute between Pretoria and Washington. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced visa restrictions on 15 September aimed at people responsible for South African policies that Washington calls race-based or that allow uncompensated land seizures. US ambassador Brent Bozell said the visa restriction policy is only the first step in a series of escalatory measures, Newsday reported on 21 September.
IOL added that some US lawmakers have introduced bills to exclude South Africa from AGOA and to force a review of Washington’s relationship with the country, and that ties are strained over South Africa’s engagement with Russia, China and Iran and its case against Israel at the International Court of Justice.
Solidarity, which welcomed the extension in a statement on 3 September, has visited the White House and Congress and submitted economic impact studies. “We believe constructive engagement, rather than exclusion, is the only way to protect jobs and promote economic growth,” Kleynhans said. The union says the automotive and agricultural sectors would be hit hardest.
Kleynhans urged the South African government to set politics aside and make a final case for keeping the country in AGOA.
Oxford Economics analyst Jervin Naidoo offered a counter-argument in the BusinessTech report: “The US needs South Africa in AGOA as much as South Africa wants to remain, as part of receiving preferential access to the US market.” He said the partnership helps the United States counter China’s growing trade presence and secure access to critical minerals.
What happens next
The timetable is short. The announcement is expected around early November, and the next eligibility determination takes effect on 1 January 2027. Until then the list of eligible countries can still change.
More coverage of US trade policy and its effect on exporters is in the markets and finance and regulatory and policy sections, and the agri-business section covers farm exports.
