The Braai Index for September 2026 shows year-on-year inflation of 5.2%, up from 3.1% in August and the highest since 6.7% in August 2025, BusinessTech reports. Year-on-year inflation compares prices with the same month a year earlier.
The index is compiled by BusinessTech from September prices tracked by the PMBEJD group across South African stores, using a methodology that originated with Bloomberg. It leads official Stats SA inflation data, so it works as a preview of pricing trends. The basket covers meat (beef, wors, chicken portions), vegetables (spinach, carrots, tomatoes, potatoes, onions, green peppers) and other items (samp, maize, curry powder, salt). It excludes pork and lamb, so those proteins do not affect the figure.
Where the pressure is coming from
Braai basket inflation is tracking above headline inflation. Stats SA’s August data showed food and non-alcoholic beverage prices rising by only 0.7% year on year, the lowest in 10 years, against the Braai Index’s 3.1% rise that month. BusinessTech reads this as second-round effects (the knock-on of earlier price shocks) filtering through to specific food categories while other segments see disinflation.
In September, beef and wors were generally cheaper than a year ago, and chicken was the outlier at up 4.9%. The real culprit, BusinessTech says, is the side dishes: potatoes, onions, carrots and tomatoes all show double-digit increases on 2025.
There is some relief. After four months of month-on-month price increases following the Iran war in March, prices are starting to ease: the basket fell 2.6% month on month in August and another 0.4% in September.
What the economist expects
Agbiz chief economist Wandile Sihlobo says South Africa’s strong 2025/26 crop season should help keep food price inflation moderate for the rest of the year, with grain-related products, fruit and vegetables currently in deflation. An expected El Niño drought, though, may put prices under pressure across product categories going into and through 2027, and base effects from this year’s low inflation will also push inflation up next year, he said.
On meat, Sihlobo said price inflation has continued to moderate, “however, fears of foot-and-mouth disease have added upside pressure on red meat prices over the past few months”. Cattle slaughter has declined, “though not notably”, and because outbreaks typically close the country to some export markets, domestic supply can rise even as slaughter falls.
His bigger concern is energy: the continued US-Iran war keeping fuel costs elevated. Fuel is a substantial share of food distribution costs, he said, and over 80% of staple food products travel by road. From Wednesday, 7 October, petrol went above R30 a litre for the first time, and wholesale diesel is over R33 a litre, hitting upwards of R35 at the pumps. BusinessTech notes that while El Niño is the bigger risk for next year’s food prices, the second-round effect of the energy crisis is the more immediate one.
For more coverage of food-price trends, see our Retail & Consumer section.
