Chinese imports into South Africa have more than doubled since the start of the decade, adding almost R165 billion in shipments in the first eight months of 2026 compared with the same period six years earlier, according to a Bloomberg report published by BusinessTech on 18 October 2026. Among Africa’s major economies, only Nigeria recorded a bigger increase.
How big the surge is
Shipments from China jumped 29% in the first eight months of 2026 from a year earlier. The report links the acceleration to Chinese manufacturers seeking buyers elsewhere after facing higher United States trade barriers following President Donald Trump’s return to the White House. Central bank data cited in the report show China accounts for more than a third of South Africa’s manufacturing imports, but only about 5.9% of its exports.
South Africa is not alone in feeling the pressure. The report says Brazil and Vietnam are also struggling and have imposed tariffs on Chinese steel, and that the European Union reached a deal with Beijing the previous week to curb Chinese hybrid-car exports. For wider context on the shift in trade flows, see our earlier report on China overtaking the euro area as South Africa’s top trading partner.
A sector already in decline
The imports land on a manufacturing sector that has shrunk for more than three decades, according to the report. Industry contracted for a third consecutive quarter in the three months through June 2026. Factory capacity utilisation was about 76% in 2026, down from 83.2% in 2003, a level the report says is similar to some major developed economies.
The core problem, the report argues, is too little demand for goods that are priced competitively, which makes new investment hard to justify. It also lists high energy costs, an inflexible labour market, burdensome regulation, failing infrastructure, weak growth, a high cost of living and unemployment among the pressures on the sector.
Moody’s Ratings has put a ranking on the exposure. In its Manufacturing Vulnerability Index, South Africa is the most exposed to Chinese trade competition of the eight African nations assessed. The Daily Dispatch carried the finding in July 2026, citing the Moody’s report. According to the Bloomberg piece, Moody’s pointed to a relatively large manufacturing sector with heavy reliance on foreign, especially Chinese, value added in exports, and to moderate, declining competitiveness.
Relief applications and the view from the factory floor
The International Trade Administration Commission (ITAC) is investigating five new applications for relief from import surges. The report says the sectors involved include gypsum plasterboard, polyethene terephthalate (PET plastic used in beverage containers) and cold-rolled steel. Applicants named include the South African Fasteners Manufacturers’ Association, which represents makers of steel nuts and bolts, Saint-Gobain Construction Products South Africa, ArcelorMittal and Hosaf, a unit of KAP. In an emailed response, ITAC said case loads linked to higher imports have generally risen, partly because of increased imports from East Asia, including China.
At Alvern Cables in Germiston, east of Johannesburg, the pressure is visible. The company, founded in 1967, makes low and medium voltage cables. Works Director Jaycen Padiachy said the post-pandemic recovery has faltered and that imports are affecting the business. To cope, the factory has moved to reduced working time for a short period.
Policy and industry reactions
Busi Mavuso, chief executive of Business Leadership South Africa, said government shows little appetite to protect local industry despite talk of industrialisation and beneficiation. She said the country lacks a clear trade policy and puts politics ahead of economics. These are her views, as reported by Bloomberg.
Maoto Molefane, acting deputy director-general at the Department of Trade, described the upheaval in trade as a serious wake-up call. He said the country is looking beyond its dependence on one region, and that government is promoting what it calls a butterfly strategy to strengthen trade links across regions and diversify markets.
Sello Takatso, senior manager for manufacturing at Nedbank, said capacity is not the issue. In his assessment, manufacturers are now competing mainly on price.
What to watch next
The ITAC applications are the nearest concrete step. The report does not say when ITAC will decide on them or what form any relief would take, and it gives no timeline for the government’s diversification plans. Any firm that sells into South African factories or competes against imported goods will be watching those decisions, along with the next quarterly manufacturing figures, to see whether the contraction through June has extended further.
