South Africa’s new vehicle market sold 61 890 units in October 2026, which is 5 839 vehicles or 10.4% more than the 56 051 sold in October 2025, according to the Automotive Business Council (naamsa) release of 2 November 2026. Vehicle exports also rebounded, reaching 38 117 units. The numbers arrive as petrol passed R30 a litre in October and a temporary fuel levy cut took effect on 4 November.
Passenger cars and rental fleets drove the growth
Naamsa reports that passenger car sales were 45 084 units, up 13.6% from 39 704 a year earlier. The car rental industry accounted for 21.4% of passenger car sales in the month. Across the whole market, naamsa estimates dealer sales at 48 234 units or 78.0%, rental companies at 16.5%, government at 3.3% and corporate fleets at 2.2%.
The picture was more mixed in commercial vehicles. Light commercial vehicles, meaning bakkies and minibuses, sold 13 689 units, up 2.2% from 13 398. Medium commercial vehicles slipped 0.9% to 770 from 777. Heavy trucks and buses grew 8.1% to 2 347 from 2 172. Carmag notes that light commercial sales were 672 units lower than in September, and Moneyweb, citing the National Automobile Dealers Association (Nada), puts that month on month fall at 4.6%.
Month on month the market was flat
The 10.4% is a year on year figure. Moneyweb reports Nada’s calculation that October sales were 234 vehicles, or 0.4%, above September’s revised 61 656. In other words, the market has held at roughly 62 000 a month for two months rather than accelerating. Moneyweb also reports ten month sales of 554 081 units, up 12.3% on the same period of 2025, and says a further 45 919 vehicles would have to be sold in November and December to reach 600 000 for the year. That is an arithmetic gap, not a forecast, and neither naamsa nor Nada has promised the milestone in the material we read.
Rental purchases carried part of the month. Moneyweb says rental companies took 16.5% of total domestic sales, up from 13.8% in September, while dealership sales fell to 78% from 81.4%. Nada chair Brandon Cohen said rental purchases had played an important role in October as the year end holiday travel period approached. Because rental companies buy in bulk ahead of peak travel and later sell vehicles back to the used market, a bigger rental share says less about household demand than a rise in dealer sales would.
Exports recover but remain below last year
Naamsa says export sales reached 38 117 units, up 6.3% on October 2025 and up 21.1% on September. The council says the improvement ended a decline that began in February 2026 and was led by light commercial vehicles and extra heavy commercial vehicles. Cumulative exports for the first ten months are still 8.3% below the same period of 2025. The Citizen lists last October’s exports at 35 853 units. One month of recovery does not reverse a ten month shortfall.
Fuel costs and affordability frame the numbers
Naamsa notes that inland 95 octane petrol reached R30.25 a litre from 7 October, 12.4% higher than in September, with Brent averaging US$101 a barrel during the fuel price review period and rising above US$110 towards month end. It adds that the R10 billion fuel levy relief announced in the 21 October Medium Term Budget Policy Statement cuts the diesel levy by R3.00 a litre and the petrol levy by R1.50 from 4 November, which it calls a buffer rather than a structural solution. On October price levels, naamsa says petrol would stay about 39% above January levels and diesel wholesale prices 57% to 61% higher. We covered the cut in our report on the fuel levy relief and how it steps down on 2 December.
Naamsa also cites September headline consumer price inflation of 4.5%, up from 4.4% in August, a rise we reported when inflation edged up as fuel lifted transport costs. Economists have been split on whether the Reserve Bank will raise rates in November, which matters because vehicle finance is priced off the repo rate.
Mr Cohen offered a caution that sits against the headline: “The deposit, repayment period, and any balloon payment all affect affordability,” he said, and continued growth “will depend on what households and businesses can comfortably commit to vehicle ownership.” That is Nada’s view, and it fits the pattern in the data, where growth is concentrated in passenger cars and rental fleets while bakkie sales fell month on month.
Brands, new energy vehicles and what it means
Carmag and The Citizen list Toyota as the market leader with 14 495 units, though Carmag shows Toyota down 871 units from September. Suzuki sold 7 292, its first month above 7 000 according to The Citizen, while Isuzu fell to 2 123 from 3 022. The Toyota Hilux was the top seller with 3 820 units. Naamsa also repeated that new energy vehicle sales reached 22 389 units in the first nine months, which we examined in our report on new energy vehicle sales.
For businesses, the data supports steady demand for fleet and commercial replacement, but higher fuel costs add to operating budgets for anyone running delivery, sales or service vehicles. Dealers and finance houses should note that rental volumes are inflating the monthly total. Consumers shopping for a car are buying into a market where credit terms matter as much as the sticker price.
What is still unknown
Naamsa does not break out how many of the 61 890 sales were financed, or how many sales went to first time buyers. We do not know whether November will hold above 60 000 once the levy cut feeds through to pump prices, or whether export recovery will persist. Naamsa’s own release calls the October rise a sign of resilience, an interpretation, not a measured outcome. One outlet we read, Carmag, gives dealer sales as 58 234 units; naamsa’s release and IOL give 48 234, which matches 78% of the total, so we use that figure. We also did not check whether the 2025 base of 56 051 in the release was revised from the figure first published a year ago.
